On Location Tours 2019 Oscar Predictions
February 6, 2019
Missed the Golden Globes? Forgot about the SAG Awards? Let’s recap the awards season so far and then break down the big categories for the Oscars to see who has the best chances going into the hostless ceremony on February 24th.
A Star Is Born
This year, there’s no clear favorite (no pun intended). Roma and The Favourite tie for the most nominations this year, so that puts both films in a good place. With Green Book winning awards for Best Picture at the Golden Globes as well as the Producers Guild Awards, it also has a good chance. Most recently, Black Panther won the Best Ensemble award at the SAG Awards. However, Roma won the award for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, and our gut tells us this is the one to watch.
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawilikowski – Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Adam McKay – Vice
This one is more straightforward. Alfonso Cuaron has won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and Directors Guild awards so far, so his next step should be Oscar.
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
There’s two in the race for this one! Bale has a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award for his portrayal of Dick Cheney, and Malek has a Golden Globe and a SAG Award for playing Freddie Mercury. We’re giving the slight edge to Rami Malek since the members of SAG align more with the Academy, but it’s anyone’s game.
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Olivia Colman won a Golden Globe for her turn as Queen Anne, and Lady Gaga was able to tie and win a Critics Choice Award for her first movie role in A Star Is Born. After 7 nominations over 30 years, we think Glenn Close will earn her first Oscar, as she has Golden Globe, SAG Award, and Critics Choice Award to her advantage.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell – Vice
Mahershala Ali has yet to lose any of the precursor awards, so count him in for getting his second Oscar in only three years.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
The only thing Regina King hasn’t won up to this point is the SAG Award, which went to Emily Blunt from A Quiet Place, who isn’t nominated here. Another easy one!
Best Original Screenplay
This is a harder one to predict. So far, Green Book has a Golden Globe and First Reformed has a Critics Choice. Green Book, Roma, and Vice have Writers Guild nominations. We’re just going to go rogue and go with The Favourite.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk won Critics Choice, but since that film underperformed with nominations with the Academy, we think BlacKkKlansman will take this one home.
Best Animated Feature Film
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, Producers Guild, and Annie awards. Oscar is sure to be next.
Best Foreign Language Film
Never Look Away
With all of the nominations it has, it would be a huge upset if Roma didn’t win this category.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Hale County, This Morning
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Songs
All of the preceding awards have gone to the Mr. Rogers centric Won’t You Be My Neighbor? which is not among the nominees. It could go to the jaw dropping Free Solo, but it could also go to the bio documentary RBG.
Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Best Sound Editing: First Man
Best Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Film Editing: Vice
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War