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On Location Tours 2019 Oscar Predictions

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Missed the Golden Globes? Forgot about the SAG Awards? Let’s recap the awards season so far and then break down the big categories for the Oscars to see who has the best chances going into the hostless ceremony on February 24th.

Netflix

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

This year, there’s no clear favorite (no pun intended). Roma and The Favourite tie for the most nominations this year, so that puts both films in a good place. With Green Book winning awards for Best Picture at the Golden Globes as well as the Producers Guild Awards, it also has a good chance. Most recently, Black Panther won the Best Ensemble award at the SAG Awards. However, Roma won the award for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, and our gut tells us this is the one to watch.

Netflix

Best Director

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawilikowski – Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Adam McKay – Vice

This one is more straightforward. Alfonso Cuaron has won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and Directors Guild awards so far, so his next step should be Oscar.

20th Century Fox

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

There’s two in the race for this one! Bale has a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award for his portrayal of Dick Cheney, and Malek has a Golden Globe and a SAG Award for playing Freddie Mercury. We’re giving the slight edge to Rami Malek since the members of SAG align more with the Academy, but it’s anyone’s game.

 

Sony Pictures Classics

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Glenn Close – The Wife

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Olivia Colman won a Golden Globe for her turn as Queen Anne, and Lady Gaga was able to tie and win a Critics Choice Award for her first movie role in A Star Is Born. After 7 nominations over 30 years, we think Glenn Close will earn her first Oscar, as she has Golden Globe, SAG Award, and Critics Choice Award to her advantage.

Universal Pictures

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell – Vice

Mahershala Ali has yet to lose any of the precursor awards, so count him in for getting his second Oscar in only three years.

Annapurna Pictures

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice

Marina de Tavira – Roma

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

The only thing Regina King hasn’t won up to this point is the SAG Award, which went to Emily Blunt from A Quiet Place, who isn’t nominated here. Another easy one!

Fox Searchlight Pictures

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

This is a harder one to predict. So far, Green Book has a Golden Globe and First Reformed has a Critics Choice. Green Book, Roma, and Vice have Writers Guild nominations. We’re just going to go rogue and go with The Favourite.

Focus Features

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

If Beale Street Could Talk won Critics Choice, but since that film underperformed with nominations with the Academy, we think BlacKkKlansman will take this one home.

Sony Pictures

Best Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, Producers Guild, and Annie awards. Oscar is sure to be next.

Netflix

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

With all of the nominations it has, it would be a huge upset if Roma didn’t win this category.

CNN Films

Best Documentary Feature Film

Free Solo

Hale County, This Morning

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Songs

RBG

All of the preceding awards have gone to the Mr. Rogers centric Won’t You Be My Neighbor? which is not among the nominees. It could go to the jaw dropping Free Solo, but it could also go to the bio documentary RBG.

Warner Bros.

The Others

Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Song: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Best Sound Editing: First Man

Best Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born

Best Production Design: The Favourite

Best Cinematography: Roma

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice

Best Costume Design: The Favourite

Best Film Editing: Vice

Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War

 

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